Thursday, September 13, 2007

Mark Warner in the 10th

Like the vast majority of Virginians, I'm a big Mark Warner fan. So, of course I'm thrilled that he's running for U.S. Senate next year, meaning that Democrats have a great shot at controlling the governor's mansion AND both U.S. Senate seats. Of course, nothing's a done deal, but Mark Warner is a prohibitive favorite for 2008. Which raised the question, what will Mark Warner's impact be in the 10th?

Point #1: Mark Warner has never won the 10th Congressional District. In 1996, he lost it to John Warner 149,550-101,970; and in 2001, he lost it to Mark Earley 115,339-95,373.

Point #2: In 2005, Tim Kaine carried the 10th, 95,200-87,839 over Jerry Kilgore.

Point #3: In 2006, Jim Webb carried the 10th, 120,959-118,132 over George Allen.

Point #4: Note the trend? That's right, Democrats have been performing better and better in the 10th CD. Does anyone think that Mark Warner is going to break that trend against Tom Davis, Jim Gilmore or Pat Buchanan? To the contrary, my guess is that Mark Warner would defeat Jim Gilmore by a significantly wider margin than Kaine defeated Kilgore in '05. If Pat Buchanan is the nominee, it will be a landslide of historic proportions. If Tom Davis runs and manages to secure the Republican nomination -- both of which are looking increasingly doubtful, from what I hear -- the 10th will be closer but my guess is that Mark Warner would still win it.

Point #5: With Mark Warner carrying the 10th, possibly by a wide margin, this only means good things for downballot races like Feder vs. Wolf. Mark Warner/Judy Feder vs. Jim Gilmore/Frank Wolf in the 10th? Is that the politics of the future vs. the politics of the past or what? Unity vs. divisiveness? Competence vs. incompetence? Is this an easy choice or what?

The bottom line is that Mark Warner's going to help Democrats downballot all across Virginia next year. That alone should give Judy Feder a few more points, putting her very much within range of defeating Frank Wolf. This will be verrry interesting.

No comments: